Is There Anybody Out There? "Is there anybody out there? Probably not, according to a scientist from the University of East Anglia. A mathematical model produced by Prof Andrew Watson suggests that the odds of finding new life on other Earth-like planets are low, given the time it has taken for beings such as humans to evolve and the remaining life span of Earth."

So, I have a problem with this one. It starts off talking about the "odds of finding new life on other Earth-like planets," but it turns out that they guy has only calculated the odds of intelligent life. Oh noes, we're never going to meet the little green men!! Who cares? Isn't the important thing that we find life - ANY life - on some other celestial body than the Earth? Wouldn't ooze on Europa or subsurface bacteria on Mars be enough? Wouldn't fossil evidence of past bacteriological activity on Mars be enough?? The odds of finding LIFE AT ALL are actually much higher. For example, using the guy's numbers from the article, the probability of finding single-celled bacteria would have an upper bound of at least TEN PERCENT over four billion years and that's pretty good odds given the size of the universe.

It's not really clear from the article, but I assume that the odds are the chance of a given Earth-like planet harboring life over a four billion year period, so we need to find some Earth-like planets first. That actually isn't too far off. Detecting life on them is going to be interesting, though.

The reporter also says "life" and not "life as we know it," throughout the article but that's an entirely other rant.